Startups love the idea of OKRs: clarity, focus, accountability, alignment.
But when you ask teams how confident they actually feel about achieving those OKRs, the tone changes.
There’s a disconnect - a big one.
Most teams aren’t walking into the quarter thinking, “We’ve got this.”
They’re thinking, “We might get close.”
And that gap between ambition and confidence is exactly what the data exposes.
To understand it, we spoke with hundreds of teams using OKRs. One question stood out:
“At the start of the quarter, how confident are you that your team will achieve its OKRs?”
The answers tell a story every early-stage team should pay attention to.
The Confidence Cliff
Confidence scores in the dataset spanned a huge range, from 21% all the way to 100%. But the distribution is where things get interesting.
Most teams fell between 64% and 74% confidence.
Not pessimistic - but not fully convinced, either.
Only three people reported 100% confidence.
And a handful reported confidence as low as 21%, signaling they already expect to miss their goals.
For early-stage teams, this pattern is common. Founders adopt OKRs to create clarity and focus, but day-to-day execution doesn’t always follow. The result is a kind of polite optimism: “We think we’ll get close… hopefully.”
But confidence is not a feeling - it’s a signal.
And when most teams cluster in the middle, the signal is clear: something in the OKR system isn’t working.
What’s Driving the Confidence Gap?
For startups between 10 and 25 people, the confidence drop doesn’t stem from lack of ambition. It comes from how OKRs are written, used, and maintained across the quarter.
Below are the patterns that consistently lower confidence - and how they show up in real teams.
1. OKRs Become “Performative” Instead of Strategic
Several respondents admitted a large portion of their OKRs are written to “please leadership.”
This happens when OKRs become:
- a reporting artifact,
- a checkbox exercise,
- or a quarterly formality.
Teams feel pressure to sound ambitious - so they write goals they already know are unrealistic.
When OKRs are written for optics instead of outcomes, confidence drops quickly. People know when goals aren’t grounded in reality, and morale shifts from commitment to cautious guessing.
2. OKRs Are Too Big for the Team Running Them
A classic early-stage problem:
Too many OKRs, too many KRs, and too few people.
When a team of 15 has 15 OKRs, the math doesn’t work. No one has the bandwidth to own the outcomes, and the system becomes unsustainable by week three.
Confidence doesn’t fall because teams lack skill - it falls because the plans were impossible from the start. Overcommitting is the fastest route to underperformance.
3. Teams Have Ambition - But Not Enough Clarity
Ambitious OKRs aren’t the issue.
Ambiguous OKRs are.
Teams lose confidence when they struggle to answer:
- What does success look like - exactly?
- Who is responsible for this?
- How will we measure movement?
- Which work actually drives these results?
If OKRs aren’t tied to concrete decisions and clear ownership, they feel abstract. And abstract goals rarely feel achievable.
4. OKRs Are Set in Week 1… and Revisited in Week 12
The most common execution gap we see in early-stage startups is simple:
OKRs are created → then ignored.
Teams revisit them at the end of the quarter, not throughout it. Without consistent weekly visibility, confidence becomes guesswork.
High-confidence teams aren’t more ambitious - they’re more disciplined. They treat OKRs less like a quarterly planning document and more like an operating system.
Low-Confidence vs High-Confidence Teams
Before looking at how high-performing teams build confidence, it helps to visualize the differences clearly. Most early-stage teams fall into predictable patterns, and seeing them side-by-side makes it easier to diagnose where you stand.
This comparison highlights one thing: confidence isn’t about hitting every goal - it’s about running a system that makes progress predictable. Once teams shift into the right-hand column, confidence increases naturally.
What High-Confidence Startups Do Differently
Among teams reporting 90–100% confidence, three habits showed up again and again. None require special tools or consultants - just structure and consistency.
1. They Choose Fewer OKRs - Often Just One
High-performing early-stage teams tend to run:
- 1 company-level OKR
- 1–2 OKRs per team
That’s it.
A smaller surface area means more focus, deeper ownership, and clearer execution paths. Confidence rises because people know exactly what matters and what doesn’t.
2. Their KRs Measure Outcomes, Not Activity
Confidence builds when success is defined in measurable terms.
Poorly written KR: “Launch new onboarding flow.”
Outcome-first KR: “Increase onboarding completion from 42% → 70%.”
The best teams set goals that clearly show whether progress is happening. Outcomes increase conviction because they reduce ambiguity and force prioritization.
3. They Review OKRs Every Single Week
The difference between 65% confidence and 90% confidence is rarely ambition - it’s visibility.
Weekly check-ins create rhythm:
- What moved last week?
- What stalled?
- What’s the priority this week?
- What’s changed?
When OKRs are reviewed every seven days, teams stop guessing and start adjusting. Confidence follows.
So What Does This Mean for Your Startup?
The takeaway is straightforward:
Your team is likely somewhat confident in the OKRs - but not fully convinced they’ll hit them.
That’s not a failure. It’s feedback.
It tells you your OKRs aren’t too ambitious - they’re too vague, too numerous, or too disconnected from weekly execution. When you tighten the system, confidence rises naturally.
How to Boost OKR Confidence This Quarter
Use this five-step process to move from “we hope we’ll hit our OKRs” to “we’re on track and we know it.”
1. Pick One Company-Level OKR
Focus makes conviction possible.
Most early-stage teams spread themselves too thin, which makes it impossible to feel confident about hitting anything.
When you choose one company-level OKR, you give everyone a single point of alignment - something that anchors priorities, resourcing, and energy. Confidence grows when teams know exactly what matters most.
2. Write 2–3 Outcome-Based KRs
No tasks. Only measurable results.
Clear outcomes remove the guesswork that usually erodes confidence inside startup teams. When every KR defines a measurable shift in a metric, people stop debating what “progress” means and start working toward concrete targets.
Outcome-based KRs also make it easier to spot when you're drifting early, instead of discovering problems in week 11.
3. Assign One Directly Responsible Owner Per KR
Accountability drives movement.
When ownership is shared, updates become vague and execution becomes inconsistent - both huge confidence killers. A directly responsible owner creates clarity: one person tracking movement, rallying contributors, and raising blockers early.
This structure creates momentum because everyone knows who’s driving the work forward.
4. Cut Initiatives in Half
You don’t need more bets - just better ones.
Overcommitting is the fastest way to slip into “we hope this works” territory. When you deliberately reduce the number of projects tied to your OKRs, each one gets the attention, time, and quality it needs.
Startups don't win by doing more - they win by finishing the work that matters.
5. Run a Weekly 30-Minute Check-In
Track movement, identify blockers, clarify priorities.
Weekly reviews turn OKRs from a quarterly planning exercise into an operating rhythm that keeps the whole team grounded. These check-ins provide a predictable cadence for visibility, alignment, and course correction.
When progress is reviewed every seven days, confidence rises because teams always know where they stand.
Follow this routine for one quarter and confidence will increase without forcing it.
OKRs Aren’t Magic - They’re a Management System
Startups often expect OKRs to create alignment on their own.
But the data tells a clearer story:
Confidence only appears when OKRs are paired with good habits.
Teams that review progress weekly, trim surface area, and define success clearly don’t become more confident by luck. They become confident because execution feels predictable.
The good news? Predictability isn’t a luxury - it’s a choice. And you can build it this quarter.
